Crypto Predictions after the US Election 2024
Bitcoin (BTC) price action hovers at around $68,760; up 0.25% in the last 24 hours but down -7.35% from its recent local high of $73,600; Time is coming up.
As the US presidential election of 2024 approaches its high point (with former President Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris), all crypto enthusiasts and analysts are getting ready for some significant volatility, with predictions in the range of $90,000 up to $65,000 within days.
Trump Victory Ensures Bullish Path for Bitcoin
Analysts from Bernstein took things a step further, proposing that if Trump won the White House, Bitcoin could immediately rise to an $80K-$90K price range. Why?
The cryptocurrency industry is bullish due to the aggressive openness by Trump over the token. At his campaign rallies, he has promised to make the US a crypto hub for the world. Among the key proposals out of his camp are a crypto-friendly SEC chair, a national Bitcoin reserve and making the U.S. Bitcoin mining hub.
Bernstein derives his optimism not only from political rhetoric but also Bitcoin’s cyclical tendencies. Bitcoin has traditionally gone on to rally after halvings, which are four-year cycles.
As an example, the BTC saw a rise of nearly 9,500% after the 2012 halving, soaring from $12 to $1,150 by late-2013. In 2016, the second halving caused another spike that took Bitcoin from $650 to almost $20,000 in 2017 — an increase of more than 3,000%.
This trend repeated itself following the third halving that took place in 2020, culminating with Bitcoin reaching what was then its all time high of $69,000 in November of 2021.
The fourth halving just happened in April 2024, and (if history repeats itself), it could start to play a role again, especially with a pro-crypto administration coming to power.
If multiple political and historical factors converge, it could serve as a trigger that aligns the price of Bitcoin with Bernstein’s bullish target range.
A Bearish Scenario if Harris Wins
Vice President Kamala Harris becomes president, however, that’s a whole different outlook. According to market analyst Miles Deutscher, Bitcoin could crater as soon as Harris becomes the President.
What the market fears most is regulatory uncertainties. One implication of a Harris administration could be stricter crypto regulations, which would likely spook investors.
Good vibes do support this sentiment, as seen by activity on Polymarket, a popular prediction platform where traders are wagering heavily that BTC drops if Harris wins. The most famous of those bets suggests Bitcoin will plummet to $65,000 — and market players are pricing “yes” shares at 76% if they believe it will.
Such expectations of regulatory actions may well dampen investors’ sentiments and create massive selling pressure in the short run.
But even if he wins, it doesn’t mean that Bitcoin can’t make it to $100,000+ in the long run, Deutscher acknowledges.
But the road would be fundamentally different, with a Harris administration almost certainly making it a lumpy, regulation-laden road to that goal post.
The November Effect and Federal Reserve’s Role
Historically, November has been a month that has packed punches for Bitcoin. The average return for BTC in November has been 46% since 2013. Should history repeat itself, Bitcoin could make a massive rally.
According to analyst Lark Davis, BTC would be around $104,000 if it surged 46% from current levels—which is a very impressive number.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on Nov. 7 only adds to the bullish case. This has led to market speculation that a 25-basis-point rate cut is possible, which would additionally boost bitcoin and other risk assets.
When interest rates are lower, the dollar tends to get weaker and that benefits Bitcoin as a potential alternative asset. Whether or not the Fed gives into an outcome politically favorable to crypto, either way it is a recipe for a bullish storm.
Other Macro Factors at Play
Even aside from the election and rate speculation, Bitcoin price dynamics have hinted at market anxiety already.
Over the last week, alongside BTC’s dip, futures open interest fell by $1.1 billion and around $300 million worth of positions were liquidated.
It seems traders are hedging their bets, pulling back their exposure ahead of potential volatility on election day. Such caution reflects the larger uncertainty looming on the market.
But crypto fans are optimistic about the long-term future of Bitcoin, regardless of these problems. Despite risks that are evident in the short term, investors remain excited by fresh, all-time high hopes.
And after all, Bitcoin does have this talent for shining in turmoil and that important trend from the past has been said to point to volatility paying off if you can weather the storm.
What’s Next for Bitcoin After the US Election?
No matter who comes out victorious, analysts seem to agree that Bitcoin is heading in the direction of $100,000 soon—at least by different routes. But a Trump win could accelerate the rise of BTC on the back of a crypto-friendly position, while a Harris victory may see it dip at first, although according to Deutscher, BTC would go up in part because institutional appetite as well as maturity and capital inflow will only grow.
We will see massive volatility in the days following this election—not just as crypto investors digest who won but also potential policy announcements from the Fed.
Regardless if Bitcoin hits the expected $80,000-$90,000 level over the coming weeks or not, it is safe to say that a new era of cryptocurrency attention has occurred with the 2024 election, no matter how far away, only seems to be fueling the fire.
If November goes as anticipated, Bitcoin might rise powerfully from its 68,760 price right now and welcome one of the most exciting months in its history.
