Background On Profits At Polymarket
As a blockchain-based prediction market area, Polymarket is one of the hottest spots in terms of user activity and trade volume. However, new data shows that Only 12.7% of Crypto Wallets Profitable on Polymarket. In the case of Pi Network, this comes out to about 21,730 profitable wallets with the rest (149,383 accounts) losing money.
This contrast reveals the difficult nature of prediction markets where even the more exciting of setups will generally not yield profits to the vast majority of traders.
More than 10 million trades have been conducted on Polymarket, indicating a robust and deep user base. That said, these high levels of activity do not translate into wide-spread success in short, a lot of people use Uber– but very few make money.
What We Really Earn: The Payoff For Users Who Actually Paid
The profit is not evenly distributed in the small percentage of the winning wallets Of the profitable crowd, just over 2,138 wallets pierced the threshold of earning at least $1,000. By comparison, about 7,400 profitable wallets showed returns of $100-$1,000, on the other hand.
There are about 12,192 wallets that have made less than $100 despite many of them being relatively profitable. It seems that while a few are successful, it takes a lot of luck to make a good amount of money via this program. Meanwhile, most users that do manage to earn a profit make only modest returns, indicating the platform’s volatility and challenges in winning big rewards.
In a 48-hour period between October 6 and 8, the platform recorded a spike in trading activity. These were the days of some force majeure and U.S. elections fever period this suggests that broader determinants really drive user behavior as people predict on news they read in the world, which hammers prediction markets.
Strategic Directions and Future of Polymarket
To address potential threat, several users are using multiple wallets; 25000+ wallets have done over 50 trades each. And on the other hand, these diversification process make traders spread their risk and this accordingly increase their success rate in profitable trades. Most other accounts (almost 58.0%) sporadically engage in one to five trades.
This indicates that Polymarket started to get commercialized with an open interest of $161 perpol at the time, which is still fairly active based on its community and market size. CEO Shayne Coplan has suggested adding commission fees to help with the generation of revenue on the platform, indicating possible changes in how the platform will work.
Stepping back for a moment, we are seeing the growth of Polymarket with increasing use and impact in the traditional financial space as its data is now present on Bloomberg Terminal. The new approval signals that they are finally becoming more mainstream answers and could help change the perception of blockchain based prediction markets from risk taking speculation to legitimate, data-driven platforms.
In short, although Polymarket is still a go-to place for trading and interaction, it is also one of the most dangerous gambling destinations on the prediction market side in cryptocurrency.
