Kamala Harris Bump After Debate
After the Tuesday night debate featuring Kamala Harris and ex-President Donald Trump, that caused vice president odds on both sides to increase significantly. Trump is tied with Harris at 49% on markets such as Polymarket that allow people to bet who will win During the course of the debate, which focused on national issues like healthcare, abortion rights and foreign policy Harris’ wheel house as a candidate seeking to solidify her support with voters. Speculation on Warren as top pick to resolve these points have helped lift her odds, rendering the 2024 presidential race one of most heavily watched contests in recent memory.
Viewers in a CNN/SSRS flash poll overwhelmingly said that Harris won the debate 63% for her compared with only 37% who felt Trump was victorious and, per Sen. Tim Kaine at least, voters want to turn the page from what’s been largely an uninspiring first half of dialogue on issues separating Democrats when it comes to how they’d take on Trump as president.
How Harris’ Debate Outcome Affected Election Odds
Prices quickly spiked on betting markets such as PredictIt and Oddspedia in the immediate wake of the debate. That sent Harris shares up to $0.57 on PredictIt, whose market price moved Trump into second place at just $0.47 also behind Vice President Mike Pence and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows enqueue at half that.- Here’s an indication that many bettors are of the opinion that Harris has picked up some steam following her debate performance.
At the same time, betting surged on Polymarket and Harris was almost tied with Trump. He was also getting a bit more than even odds trading at $0.46 to Trumps 0.52$ before the debate. In the aftermath of the debate, they drew to a dead heat stuck between $0.49 and $0.50 bid-bested odds apiece.
As Harris’s support rose from 39 to 45 percent, thanks in large part to the positive reviews of her debate performance, so did its standing. AsteriskBet handicappers see the leap in betting odds and polling gains as a tangible sign of new life for Harris just around the time she is seeking votes from both Democratic core voters as well balanced against Independent voter concerns.
Wider Ramifications for 2024 Race
The Senate market and Harris’ odds hold wider importance for the 2024 U.S. presidential election landscape as well. Polymarket and similar platforms, in turn have emerged as a barometer of the public mood offering live updates on how this or that debate influences the perception regarding whether Trump stays at his job for another four years. Already, more than $860 million has traded hands on the Polymarket pre-election U.S. market as predictive markets rise in coming political dominance.
But this has sparked worries on Capitol Hill and beyond, with some lawmakers questioning whether that sort of massive wagering involving political events could create public trust in democratic procedures. Rich people buying control of markets to influence perceived public consent and thus election results? Even so, predictive markets are used by many financial analysts and traders who value a real-time pulse on the election.
With the election just weeks away, it can be expected that there will continue to be lots of variance in betting odds given new debates and events occur. Harris improved her standing in the betting markets, a sign of momentum for her candidacy; yet the race is tight and both candidates must thread several needles to win.